The quantum dilemma: Game-changer or game-ender

If someone told you five years ago that you could pose questions to an AI agent about the most vexing issues in science and it could answer back swiftly and meaningfully, you would’ve thought they were joking. But AI has ushered in this reality. The same holds true for quantum computing.

For those that need a refresher on quantum computing, it’s considered ground-breaking technology: a super computer that uses the principles of quantum mechanics to perform highly complex mathematical calculations at a speed and scale that far exceeds today’s supercomputers. Unlike classical computers that compute using binary states (zeroes and ones), quantum computers use qubits, which can exist both in a state of superposition (both zero and one at the same time) or entanglement (qubits become interlinked), enabling them to perform more complex calculations efficiently and simultaneously.

Believe it or not, quantum computing is already here and its market is predicted to grow exponentially in the coming decade.

With every great technology comes great risk and uncertainty

When AI entered the business scene, it promised improved decision making, enhanced efficiencies and innovative capabilities. But businesses are now beginning to realize that AI possesses its own risks and vulnerabilities such as biases in algorithms, data privacy issues, and risk of data manipulation and data poisoning, sparking an urgent need for AI to be regulated, risks mitigated and controlled.

Similarly, while quantum computing is not part of the mainstream yet, one can certainly imagine or predict that there will be risks, consequences, and implications for businesses. Let’s explore some top risks, concerns and uncertainties on the horizon for quantum computing.

1. Cyber threats and privacy concerns

Experts predict that a quantum computer can use the Shor algorithm to easily crack encryption methods such as the RSA (Rivest-Shamir-Adleman), which is the strongest and most common encryption method on the internet. Imagine if a quantum computer could decrypt internet communications: it would enable adversaries and rogue nations to gain access to sensitive and classified information, posing a major threat to national and organizational security.

Cybersecurity experts believe that some threat actors and rogue nations may have already kicked off a “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy, so that when these quantum tools do arrive, they can immediately operationalize them for malicious and strategic purposes.

2. Government interference

Quantum computing is a type of breakthrough where government interference might be extremely high. Organizations could find themselves cut off from quantum’s supercharged processing power, because it may well be developed by a government for its own ends, or restricted to protect national interests.

Pending regulations could also create uncertainty across industries, stifling innovation as companies are forced to navigate the complexities of compliance and adjust their strategies to meet new legal requirements.

3. Access to innovation

The ability for organizations to make the most of any and every emerging technological innovation is a major uncertainty, especially with technologies like quantum computing. It demands technical proficiencies or expertise that organizations simply cannot get access to.

Cost and expertise are an important factor: it might be prohibitively expensive to set up these capabilities because they require specialized hardware plus, expertise in managing this technology may not be readily available. On the other hand, other rival organizations from across borders or threat actors with the backing of rogue or hostile powers might harness these technologies and develop more powerful capabilities for themselves.

4. Technical debt

When this technology arrives, there will be a growing demand to keep pace, to push ahead and to embrace new technology and ideas. But at the same time, there’s similar pressure to do something about this growing pile of legacy technology – hardware, applications, resources etc.

There will always be this opportunity cost that businesses will have to consider – either replace legacy technology completely and retrain the workforce to match the pace with the industry, or delay plans and squeeze the maximum value out of existing investments and resources.

5. Biases and errors

Quantum computing will no doubt enhance AI’s ability to process and analyze data at unprecedented scale. But if the underlying data sets are flawed or biased, then these computing systems could lead to massively unfair decisions in lending, law enforcement, hiring practices, and more, potentially supercharging human prejudices, disinformation and conspiracy theories.

Moreover, quantum computers are sensitive to things like radiation, heat, and magnetic fields, which can lead to computational errors and degradation of computational quality.

6. Other transformational and disruptive threats

Where quantum will be applied to certain business sectors or applications it might eliminate or obliterate established approaches. This could have far-reaching implications for organizations.

Competition certainly will be evident from startups who will be more nimble and agile, armed with knowledge and disruptive innovations. On the flip side, large organizations could push smaller organizations out of the market completely because they will not be able to afford the tools and resources needed to survive and to outbid competition.

What can organizations do in the immediate future?

• Focus on protecting the crown jewels: Understand the protections that surround your most valuable assets and most important processes that you rely on.
• Explore quantum encryption: Businesses need to evaluate their internal readiness to swap out existing encryption for quantum-proof alternatives.
• Speak with cloud providers: It’s important to understand how these changes will impact cloud providers and what they are doing to secure your data, communications and applications.
• Pay attention to supply chain partners: Smaller supply chain partners will be unable to keep pace, so consider how these players will be supported.
• Work with peers: Technology and people are no longer separate entities. Organizations must ready the workforce for what is to come and gain a deeper understanding of what is currently being done.

The speed of innovation in quantum computing poses both threats and opportunities, compelling businesses to rethink existing processes and even mindsets, and to be flexible to adapt quickly. Businesses that prepare in advance for these disruptive forces will be better poised to capitalize on opportunities, drive innovation, maintain resilience and outperform competitors.